There is no denying that Bitcoin has been ripped to shreds by bears over the last several months after setting a new all-time high in November last year. Even with new highs, the rally is largely viewed as a failure without a dramatic cycle conclusion.
But what if that rally was part of a bear phase, that only now is about to end? In a new direct comparison between bear phases in Bitcoin since 2018, it could indicate that it is almost time for another bull season any day now.
Bull Market Cyclical Behavior
Months ago, the term “few” was thrown around by the crypto community because not enough people understood the potential of what Bitcoin could do for them financially. Today, very few people are expecting Bitcoin to rally from here.
Oftentimes, when the hive sentiment is at its most frothy, deep corrections set the masses straight. At the moment, Bitcoin bears are salivating for below $30,000, but they might not ever get it according to a new comparison.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Mimics Textbook Market Sentiment Cycle, What Happens When Confidence Returns?
Any market exhibits cyclical behavior on multiple timeframes. There are bear and bull markets, and even uptrends and downtrends within them that alternate based on moods.
But what if these alternating patterns of mood changes were predictable? That’s what the below comparison aims to find out.
This comparison chart says it is time's up for bears | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin Bear Phases Compared
In the comparison above, the 2018 bear market, 2019 to 2020 bear phase, and the current consolidation phase are juxtaposed aside one another. Each fractal measures at roughly 460 days. Alternating between each bear phase, is a short bullish impulse that shocks the world.
Bull impulses last a mere 98 days, but tend to takes prices to unprecedented levels. At minimum, these bull phases have churned out more than 300% ROI. A 300% return from $40,000 would take the price per BTC to $120,000.
Related Reading | This Bitcoin “Heatmap” Suggests A Blazing Cycle Peak Is Still Ahead
Each bear phase lasted just over 14 months. Edwin “Sedge” Coppock, creator of the technical indicator called the Coppock curve, found that the average time it takes for a human to get over mourning a loss was an average of 11 to 14 months. This, in theory, is how long it should take the average investor to get over their “loss” related to Bitcoin and are able to think positively again.
With only days potentially left until another bull impulse begins based on the above comparisons, will Bitcoin price really dip below $30,000 like the market is bracing for, or will a reversal catch the community off guard?
Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter or join the TonyTradesBTC Telegram for exclusive daily market insights and technical analysis education. Please note: Content is educational and should not be considered investment advice.
Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
Leave a Reply